Revelation 13:18 NASB

Revelation 13:18 NASB

Friday, August 30, 2013

Ever Seen a Black Swan?

Jesus states in Matthew 24 that the coming of the Son of Man will be sudden and unexpected. Much like the flood in Noah's time.  The people were going about their lives.  They were making plans and working toward their future.  Then came the flood and everything suddenly changed. Peter echos our Lord's sentiment in 2 Peter 3:1-6:
This is now the second letter that I am writing to you, beloved. In both of them I am stirring up your sincere mind by way of reminder, that you should remember the predictions of the holy prophets and the commandment of the Lord and Savior through your apostles, knowing this first of all, that scoffers will come in the last days with scoffing, following their own sinful desires. They will say, “Where is the promise of his coming? For ever since the fathers fell asleep, all things are continuing as they were from the beginning of creation.” For they deliberately overlook this fact, that the heavens existed long ago, and the earth was formed out of water and through water by the word of God, and that by means of these the world that then existed was deluged with water and perished. But by the same word the heavens and earth that now exist are stored up for fire, being kept until the day of judgment and destruction of the ungodly.  
After Jesus talked about the signs of the end times in Matthew chapter 24, he told the parable of the ten virgins.  The final sentence of the parable is this:
Watch therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour. -Matthew 25:13
But why should we watch and what are we watching for?  The flood had three characteristics.  It was sudden.  It was unexpected.  And it caused a profound and fundamental change.  A modern idiom for this is a "black swan event".  Almost every swan is white.  Even people who see a lot of swans can live their entire lives and never see a black one. But if they ever do, it is necessary for them to fundamentally change the way that they think about swans.  

It is with this in mind that we present the following article.  We are not saying that the Japanese earthquake of March 2011 was the seminal event that is leading to the return of Christ.  Or that the Fukushima reactor crisis is bringing in the end times. However it is the type of event that we watch for.  It suddenly and unexpectedly ended the lives of many people. And that part of Japan is now changed forever. There is coming an event that will change the whole world the way that the earthquake changed Japan.  That is what we are watching for.

Japanese Radiation Leak Leading Japan to Possibly Become a “Black Swan”

The Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Committee warned that the radioactive substances leaking from the Japanese nuclear facility may become a “black swan,” prompting a Yen carry trade.

On August 27, The Bank of Korea disclosed the minutes from the 15th Monetary Board meeting held on August 8 showing records of a Monetary Board representative’s comment, which reads, “Yen carry trade may become very active as the global economy recovers and the exit plan for major nations takes place,” and added, “Besides the global economic market changes, the nuclear leak can become a black swan, additionally impacting the Japanese economy.” A black swan is an event that has a low probability of happening, but can cause a tremendous amount of shock and impact once it does.

This representative also emphasized, “[The Japanese] government has the highest level of national debt in the world, yet continues its home bias tendency of local businesses and individuals holding these loans. This can become a huge problem if people’s faith in Japan or the Japanese economy itself breaks due to the radioactivity issues,” and added, “The movements in both stock investments and direct investments of Japanese funds should be watched carefully.”